With sports betting growing in popularity, line movement trends continue to provide predictability for fantasy football. Watching line shift throughout the week often points to players in key spots for fantasy football. With that said, here are a few line movement trends that could lead to fantasy sleepers in Week 9.
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Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday Nov. 3, 2019 at Wembley Stadium (Wembley, England)
Line: Houston -1.5
The NFL returns to London this week, with the Houston Texans facing the Jacksonville Jaguars. Opening the week with 58-percent of wagers backing the Texans, the line actually moved a point and a half in Jacksonville’s favor. Now only 1.5-point underdogs, NFL odds point to more fantasy production on the Jacksonville side.
Looking at the Texans’ offense, Houston currently ranks ninth in points per game (26.5), with most of their production flowing through Deshaun Watson. Watson’s 278.9 passing yards per game currently ranks 11th in the league However, with Will Fuller injured, the targets increasingly flow to DeAndre Hopkins, who ranks fourth in targets overall (81). While Jacksonville plays good defense, both Watson and Hopkins remain targets here.
On the other side, the line movement towards Jacksonville points to a productive day from Leonard Fournette on the ground. Fournette currently averaged 26.1 touches per game, including a 17.6-percent target share. Improving matters for Fournette, the Texans just lost their best defensive lineman, J.J. Watt, for the entire season. In a projected close game, Fournette makes a lot of sense here.
With game script pointing towards Houston’s passing attack and Jacksonville’s ground game, this game looks likely to feature strong fantasy performances on both sides.
Tennessee Titans vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday Nov. 3, 2019 at Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Line: Panthers -3.5
Opening the week as 4.5-point favorites over the Titans, the Panthers subsequently took 67-percent of the wagers through Friday morning. However, the line actually dropped to -3.5-points, suggesting potential sharp money on the Titans’ side. With a number of intriguing matchups for fantasy purposes, the Titans remain an interesting team to consider.
Looking at the Titans’, their run game sets up well against the Panthers this week. Derrick Henry quietly averages 20.6 touches per game and Carolina currently ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (135.2). A dropping line in this spot points to elevated rushing attempts for Henry in this contest.
On the other side, Christian McCaffrey still looks like a strong play with Carolina favored by 3.5-points at home. McCaffrey leads the league in touches per game (27.3) and ranks fourth in rushing overall (735). A weapon the receiving and run game, McCaffrey remains the focal point of Carolina’s offense regardless of game environment.
With the overall total climbing 1.5-points since open, NFL odds point to a friendly scoring environment in this contest.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday Nov. 3, 2019 at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, Florida)
Line: Jets -3
With only one win combined between these teams, the Jets opened the week as 6.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. However, massive reverse line movement already occurred, with the line dropping to -3-points, but the Jets still receiving 67-percent of bets. With probable sharp money backing Miami, a closer game points to more fantasy production in Week 9.
Playing at home with the line moving in their favor, the Dolphins’ rushing attack actually looks decent for fantasy football. Last week, Mark Walton handled 88-percent of Miami’s snaps and 17 total touches. However, if Miami falls behind yet again, both Devante Parker and Preston Williams face positive matchups against a banged-up Jets’ defense.
For the Jets, playing as 3.5-point favorites suits the skillset of Le’Veon Bell. Bell remains one of three running backs to average a 90-percent snap share. Bell also averages 21.6 touches per game with 6 of theses coming as targets. The Dolphins rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (160.4), teeing up Bell for a massive performance.
While these teams combine for one total win, both defenses permit plenty of fantasy scoring. With an increasing point total, both Mark Walton and Le’Veon Bell remain solid fantasy targets in Week 9.