Why Kamala Harris Will Win the Democratic Nomination

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Years in the past, veteran political strategist Mark McKinnon (the producer/host of Showtime’s “The Circus”) informed me his concept on making political predictions:

“If you’re incorrect, nobody remembers in case you are proper, everybody thinks you’re a political genius.”

Fortified by that philosophy, in April of final yr I put forth “5 Causes Kamala Harris doubtless will likely be Dems’ decide.”

Quick-forward 9 months to Martin Luther King Day when California’s junior senator in workplace solely since January 3, 2017 formally introduced her bid to hunt the Democratic presidential nomination.

And since 9 months roughly equates to a century in political-dog-years, Harris’ announcement affords me an irresistible alternative to revisit my 5 authentic causes via the lens of 2019.  Upon evaluation, the political depth surrounding and supporting these causes has elevated exponentially. Therefore, “protected” by McKinnon’s concept, once more I predict that Kamala Harris is prone to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee.

What follows is a re-run of these 5 authentic causes — with some new observations.

1. Kamala Harris is a lady.

Stating the apparent, I wrote that the previous California lawyer common’s gender was a “highly effective benefit,” as a result of girls “are the guts, soul and power of the [Democratic] social gathering.” They’re unified by a “passionate loathing for what they imagine is a misogynist man who presently occupies the White Home and his ‘deplorable’ followers who defeated Hillary Clinton.”

However that was then, and that is now. In November’s midterms, Democratic girls led the cost by electing 89 feminine Home members — up from 62 — leading to Democrats profitable management of the chamber and putting in a feminine speaker of the Home. 

By comparability, Republicans elected solely 13 feminine Home members, down from 23 seats.

Want extra proof that the political energy of Democratic girls has elevated? Three feminine Democratic senators have not too long ago declared their presidential intentions, and the rumblings of Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar might make it 4.

How does a crowded subject of feminine presidential contenders assist improve Harris’ probabilities of profitable the nomination? Consider her gender as a stool on which the next 4 causes are piled, making the stack even taller.

2. Kamala Harris is combined race.

Once more, it’s apparent, however the midterms proved that Democrats are more and more nominating racially various candidates to excessive workplace. Again in April I wrote, “As a mixed-race daughter of immigrants, Harris may very well be seen culturally because the political ‘poster little one’ of America’s future. Her Jamaican father got here to the U.S. in 1961 and her mom from India in 1960.”

Naturally, Harris will use her distinctive mix of ethnicity to realize each conceivable political benefit as a result of she will be able to. In America’s quickly altering demographic, cultural, and political surroundings, any shade of pores and skin apart from white is perceived as younger, cool and extra relatable. That sentiment is properly summarized in Harris’ marketing campaign slogan, “For the Folks.” (To my ears, that borders on sounding socialist, however it nonetheless beats Hillary Clinton’s “I’m together with her” in 2016, which translated meant “It’s all about me.”)

3. Kamala Harris: America’s new “position mannequin.”

Below this heading I mentioned how the mainstream media have a tendency to construct and reinforce a optimistic narrative when slobbering over their most well-liked presidential candidate, writing, “Harris’ story arc solely wants a White Home ending. Her narrative boasts that she is sensible, sassy, non-white, well-spoken, skilled and achieved.”

Now, given current headlines, I want so as to add “daughter of immigrants,” a phrase we’re certain to listen to and examine advert nauseam. Moreover, after the midterms proved that sturdy girls are on the political ascent, “fighter” is the phrase most overused by Harris and the opposite feminine presidential contenders.

However Sen. Harris has the benefit as a result of as a mixed-race “daughter of immigrants,” representing the nation’s largest state, “preventing” (in fact) “for the folks,” anticipate to listen to “position mannequin” bandied about within the media, additionally to the purpose of advert nauseam.

4. Barack Obama will assist Harris together with her marketing campaign.

Discuss a media narrative. In 2015, when Harris was nonetheless California’s lawyer common  — two years earlier than she took her seat within the Senate — a Washington Submit headline boldly requested, “Is Kamala Harris the Subsequent Obama?”

Mirroring Obama, she is operating for president after serving solely two years within the higher chamber and Harris has adopted his political playbook to the T. (Additionally, as proof of the 44th president’s affection for Harris, in 2013 he publicly known as her “the best-looking lawyer common within the nation.”)

I’ve written about Obama because the Democratic Celebration kingmaker, and now the countdown begins for the “KamalaBama” media frenzy certain to erupt when the 2 of them have their first post-announcement assembly. Yee-hah!

5. Kamala Harris has a strategic benefit over President Trump.

If I’m right in believing that Harris is prone to win the nomination, how and when will Trump personally assault her? The truth that she is a non-white lady representing the nation’s largest state, Trump’s each phrase and tweet will likely be analyzed and scrutinized from the angle of race and gender.

Then, think about Harris, a former prosecutor with a big-mouth gutsy model and “fighter” persona, versus Trump — who by no means stops preventing. This implies their potential match-up will make Clinton vs. Trump look quaint by comparability.

On Harris’ facet, she will likely be campaigning in a nation polarized to the hilt, a land quickly changing into extra mixed-race and progressively left-leaning. (Dare I say socialist?)

Conversely, Trump has a stable base of roughly 40 p.c of voters, and most important, the facility of incumbency with a 68.7 p.c re-election fee for all U.S. presidents (and consecutive re-elections for the final three).

The unhealthy information for Trump is that this week a common election survey carried out by Public Coverage Polling (a Democratic pollster) discovered Harris trumped him by a margin of 48 p.c to 41 p.c. The truth is, each Democrat candidate within the ballot, declared or undeclared, defeated the president with margins of victory starting from 5 to 12 proportion factors.

A vivid spot for my fellow Republicans is {that a} main political prediction market favors Trump’s re-election. 

At this writing, I realistically know that it’s far too early to foretell such a confrontational Trump/Harris match-up, as was additionally true in April 2018. However, 9 months later, a minimum of Harris has declared her presidential intentions. And, even with former Vice President Joe Biden main all of the polls for the Democratic nomination by double digits, I’m sticking with Harris.

My reasoning?

Politics within the Trump-era has advanced into high-stakes leisure and a Harris/Trump race affords the potential to be the best blockbuster of all time. Or dare I say ballbuster?

Myra Adams is a media producer and author who served on the McCain Advert Council through the GOP nominee’s 2008 marketing campaign and on the 2004 Bush marketing campaign artistic group.